Saturday, November 9, 2019
Animal Rights and Human Wrongs Essay
Are there limits on how human beings can legitimately treat non-human animals? Or can we treat them just any way we please? If there are limits, what are they? Are they sufficiently strong, as som e peop le supp ose, to lead us to be veg etarians and to se riously curtail, if not eliminate, our use of non-human animals in `scientificââ¬â¢ experiments designed to benefit us? To fully ap preciate this question let me contrast it with two different ones: Are there limits on how we can legitimately treat rocks? And: are there limits on how we can legitima tely treat other human beings? The an swer to th e first ques tion is pre suma bly `No.ââ¬â¢ Well, thatââ¬â¢s not q uite right. There are som e limits on what w e can le gitimate ly do with or to rocks. If Paula has a pet rock, then Susan canââ¬â¢t justifiably take it away or smash it with a sledge hammer. After all it is Paulaââ¬â¢s rock. Or if there is a rock of unusual beauty or special human interest say the Old Man of Hoy or Mt. Rushmore it would be inappropriate , and pro bably im mora l, for me to te ar it down , to deface it, or to chisel o ut a sectio n to use in my ca tapult. These limits though, arise not from any direct concern for the rocks; rather, they are imposed because of the interests a nd rights of other h uman s. Susan canââ¬â¢t take Paulaââ¬â¢s rock for the same reason she canââ¬â¢t take Paulaââ¬â¢s eraser: it is Paulaââ¬â¢s and Paula has a right to those things which are hers. And no one ca n destro y or defa ce items of specia l natural b eauty because by doing so one is indirectly harming the interests of other humans in them. So there are limits on what we can legitimately do to inanim ate objects, but whatever limits there are arise from some human concern.1 Not so for our treatment of other humans. We suppose that it is inappropriate to tr eat a human being just any way we wish. I cannot steal another human; that would be kidnapping. Nor can I sm ash so meon e with a sledgehammer; that would be, depending on the outcome, assault, attempted m urder, or murder. And the reason I cannot do these things has nothing to do with what third parties d o or don ââ¬Ët want. It has to do with the interest and desires of that particular person. It is wrong for Susan to hit Paula , not beca use oth er peo ple like Paula or because other people would be offended, but because Paula is a person. Period. Thus, there is a fundamental contrast between those objects which we can treat as we please (excep t when limited by the interests of other humans) and those which we canno t. Ordinary rocks fall into the first camp; humans, into the later. Now, what about nonhuman animals? Do they fall into the first or the se cond c amp? Or som ewhe re in between? There are reasons to believe that many animals and certainly the higher-order anima ls are more like humans than they are like rocks. Thus, we have reason to believe there are constraints on how we can legitimately treat them, regardless of our particular wishes and desires. Or so I shall argue. For the moment I will simply note that these are beliefs which most of us already have. That is, most of us presume that it is illegitimate to treat animals just anyway we wish. For exam ple, mo st of us be lieve it is wrong to wanto nly kill or torture a higher o rder m amm al. Suppose we discover that some member of our commun ity, say Jones, has a habit of picking up stray dog s or cats a nd dec apitating them w ith his hom e-ma de guillo tineââ¬â¢; 2 or we learn he has invented a machine which draws and quarters them. He uses these machines because he revels in th e anim alsââ¬â¢ pain, b ecaus e he relis hes in the sight of blood; or maybe he is a scientist who w ants to stu dy their re action to stress. In this case we rightly surmise that Jones is immoral. We wouldnââ¬â¢t want him to be our pre sident, our fr iend, our next door neighbor, or our son-in-law. In short, we all seem to agree that they a re limits on how we can properly treat nonhuman animals, and that these limits arise becau se of the n ature of th e anim als, not m erely because of the de sires of oth er hum ans to see an imals trea ted we ll. That is, such acts are wrong not merely because other humans are bothered by them. We would think them equa lly wrong if they were secretly done so that no one else in the community knew about them. We think they are wrong because of what it does to the animal. On the other hand, we are also part of a culture which rather cavalier ly uses a nimals for food, for clothes, for research in the development of new drugs, and to determine the safety of household products. And many of these u ses req uire inflicting a great d eal of pa in on animals. Record of such uses is readily available in various academic journals, and chronicled by num erous writers on the topicââ¬â¢. 3 But for the reader who might be unfamiliar with them, let me briefly describe two ways in which we use animals ways which inflict substantial pain on them. Anima ls who are raised for food are obviously raised with the express purpose of making a profit for the farmer. Nothing surprising. But the implications of this are direct and obvious and deleterious to the an imals. There are two ways for a farmer to increase her profit. One is to get higher prices for her goods, the other is to spend less producing those goods. Since there is a limit on how much people will pay for meat, there is substantial financia l pressu re to dec rease th e expe nse of p roducin g the m eat. This under standa bly leads to over-crowding; after all the more animals a farmer can get into a smaller space, the less it costs to produce the meat. There are similar pressures to restrict the animalsââ¬â¢ movement. The less the animals move, the less they eat, thus decreasing the farmerââ¬â¢s expense. For instance, farmers who raise chickens are inclined to put them in small `batteryââ¬â¢ cages. They are commonly kept `eight to ten to a space smaller than a newspaper page. Unable to walk around or even stretch their wings much less build a nest the birds be come vicious a nd attac k one a nother ââ¬Ë.4 The average person seems equally unfamiliar with the extensive use of animals in laboratory experim ents. Ma ny of thes e are of o nly mo derate significan ceââ¬â¢; 5 most of the them involve extensive pain on animals. For instance, N.J. Carlson gave hig h voltag e electric shocks to sixteen d ogs an d found that the `h igh-sho ck grou pââ¬â¢ acqu ired `an xietyââ¬â¢ faster. Or researchers in Texas constructed a pneumatically driven piston to pound an anvil into the skulls of thirteen monkeys. When it didnââ¬â¢t immediately produce concussions, the researchers increased the strength of the piston until it produced `cardiac damage, hemorrhages and brain dama geââ¬â¢. 6 Or researchers at Harvard placed baby mice and ba by rats into cages with starving adult male rats. The adults ate them. The researchersââ¬â¢ conclusion: hunger is an important drive in animals. (That, of course, is some thing we are sho cked to learn; we would have never kno wn this fact otherwise). T HE O PTIONS Now, how d o we sq uare o ur abso lute revu lsion at ou r hypoth etical Jones with his animal guillotine, and our rather blithe acceptance of the treatment of animals on the farm and in the scientific and co mme rcial labo ratories? It is not imm ediately clear tha t we can . What is clear, it seems, it that we have three options, three alternative beliefs about our treatment of anim als. Thes e are: 1) If we are repulsed by Jones treatment of stray animals, we are simply being inappr opriately or unduly squeamish or sympathetic. We should have no aversion to killing, torturin g, or usin g anim als in any way w e pleas e, unles s, of course, that anima l is some one els eââ¬â¢s prop erty, that is, he r pet. 2) There are reasons why we should treat non-human animals better than we treat rocks; nonetheless, there are also reasons why we can use non-huma n anim als in ways we could never legitimately use humans. 3) We should be treating non-human animals more like we currently treat humans. Many of our accepted ways of using animals are, in fact, morally objectionable. The first position, it seems, is completely untenable. No sensible person , I think, is willing to adop t a position which s ays that to rturing a nimals for fun is completely acceptable; no one is willing to say that Jones is a fit mem ber of so ciety. This b elief, it seem s, is virtually unshakable. Most of you understood perfectly well what I meant when I describe d Jone sââ¬â¢s behavior as `torture.ââ¬â¢ But this claim would be nonsense if we thought there were no moral limits on how we could treat animals.7 So we are left with the la tter option s. And, of course, which one we choose, will have a dramatic impact on the lives of humans and of other animals. One necessary clarification: to say that animals should be treated more like humans is not to say that they should be treated exactly like humans. For instance, we need not consider giving animals the right to vote, the right to free religious expression, or the right of free speech. As far as I can ascertain, most an imals do nââ¬â¢t have the necessary capabilities to exercise these rights. However, the same is true of very young children and of se verely retarded adults. That is why they donââ¬â¢t have these rights either: the y lack the requisite capacities. Nonetheless, the mere fact that some adult humans are not given the right to vote does n ot mea n it is legitimate to have them for lunch or to test bleach in their eyes. So why assume it is so for animals? W HY ANIMALS SHOULDNââ¬â¢T SUFFER NEED LESS PAIN Until now I have been trying to identify our own deeply held convictions about restriction s on the prope r treatme nt of anim als. Now it is high time to try to offer a positive defense of our ordinary understa nding; a defense which will have even more radical implications that we might have supposed. That is, I want to argue for option three above; I want to a rgue tha t there are rather strin gent lim its on wh at it is morally permis sible to do to anima ls. More s pecifically , I wish to argue that we should all b ecom e vege tarians a nd that w e shou ld dram atically curtail, if not eliminate, our use of laboratory animals. Though there are numerous arguments which can be offered in this rega rd, I want to defend one particular claim: that we should not inflict need less pain on anim als. Before I go on I should make it clear what I mean by `needless pain.ââ¬â¢ The point can be made most clear by use of an analogy. Contrast the following cases: 1) I prick my daughterââ¬â¢s arm with a needle for no apparent reason (though we neednââ¬â¢t assume I derive any sadistic pleasure from it). 2) I am a physician and I inoculate her against typhoid. What differentiates these cases? In both I prick her arm; in both (let us presume) I inflict similar amounts of pain. Yet we consider the latter not only ju stifiable, bu t possibly obligato ry; the former we consider sadistic. Why? Because it inflicts unne cessar y pain. M y daug hter doe s not in any way bene fit from it. Thus, unnecessary pain is that which is inflicted on a sentient (feeling) creature when it is not for the good of that particular creature. The latter is necessary pain; it is pain which the creature suffers for her own good. There are two main premises in my argument. The first is the factual claim that anima ls do, in fact, feel pa in. The second is the claim that the potential of animal suffering severe ly limits what we can justifiably do to them, it constrains the way we can legitima tely use them. That an imals fee l pain That anima ls do feel p ain see ms rela tively unc ontrove rsial. It is a belief we all share. As I noted earlier we couldnââ¬â¢t even make sense of `torturingââ¬â¢ an animal if we assumed it was incapa ble of feeling pain. Nor could we understand being repulsed at Jonesââ¬â¢s use of stray anima ls unless we thought the animals suffered at Jonesââ¬â¢s hands. If Jones collected abandoned tin cans and cut them to pieces w ith his guillo tine, we m ig ht think J ones te rribly odd, bu t not imm oral. But more can be said. We have more than adequate behavioral evidence that anima ls feel pain and that they can suffer. Most of us have seen a dog which has been struck by a car, though not killed instantaneously. The dog convulses, bleed, and yelps. Less drastically, most of us have, at some time or another, stepped on a catââ¬â¢s tail or a dogââ¬â¢s paw and ha ve witne ssed the anima lââ¬â¢s reaction . The reaction, unsurprisingly, is like our own reaction in similar cases. If someone steps on my hand, I w ill likely yell and attempt to move my hand. But we ne ednââ¬â¢t res t the case on beh avioral e videnc e thoug h it does seem to m e to be more than sufficient. We should also note that we share important anatomical structures with higher o rder an imals. A human beingââ¬â¢s central nervous center is remarkably similar to that of a chimpanzee, dog, pig, and even a rat. That is not to say the brains are exactly alike; they arenââ¬â¢t. The cerebral cortex in human beings is more highly de velope d than in most mamm als (though not noticeably so wh en compare d with a dolphin or a Great Ap e); but the cortex is the location of our `higher brain fun ctions,ââ¬â¢ for e xamp le, the sea t of thoug ht, speech, etc. However, the areas of the brain which neurophysiologist identity as the `pain centersââ¬â¢ are virtua lly identica l betwee n hum an and non-h uman anima ls. Accord ing to evolutionary biology this is exactly w hat we should expec t. The pa in centers worke d well in enhancing the survival of lower species, so they were altered only slightly in succeeding evolutionary stages. H igher br ain func tions, how ever, are condu cive to survival, and thus, have led to more dramatic advances in cerebral development. Given all this, it seems undeniable that many animals do feel pain. That they feel pain is morally relevant ââ¬ËSo what?â⬠⢠someone might ask. ` Even if animals do feel p ain, why should that limit or at least se riously restrict our treatment of them? Why canââ¬â¢t we still use them for our purposes, whatever those purposes happen to be?ââ¬â¢ Letââ¬â¢s turn the question around for a moment and ask why we think we should be able to use them for our purposes, given that they are capable of suffering? After all, we are staunc hly opposed to inflicting unnecessary pain on human beings. If animals can also feel pain, why shouldnââ¬â¢t we have the same reluctance to inflicting needless pain on them? A crucial tenet of ethics is that we should treat like cases alike. Th at is, we sh ould treat two cases the same unless there is some general and relevant reason which justifies the difference in treatment. Thus, two students who perform equally well in the same class should get the same grade; two who perform rather differently should receive different grades. By the same token, if two creatures feel pain and it is improp er to inflict needless pain on one of them , it would likewise be improper to inflict needless pain on the othe r. But the argumen t has pro gresse d too qu ickly. This a rgum ent wo rks only if the reason it is wrong to inflict need less pain on the one creature is that it feels pain. If there is some other reason so me rea son wh ich could differentia te hum an from non-h uman anim als then we would not be able to infer that it is illegitim ate to inflict needless pain on animals. Hence, if someone wishes to show that it is not wrong to inflict needless pain on animals, then she must identify some relevant difference between human and non-huma n animals, some differenc e which justifies this d ifference in treatm ent. And, of course , this is just wh at mos t defend ers of ou r presen t treatme nt of anim als are inclined to do. Tho ugh pe ople on ce rega rded a nimals as non-sentient creatures as mere automata that is no longer so.
Thursday, November 7, 2019
Free Essays on Our Girls By Elizabeth Cady Stanton
Elizabeth Cady Stanton was a womenââ¬â¢s rights activist in the 19th century who believed that women were to be treated equally to men. She argued this idea in one of her many speeches ââ¬Å"our girlsâ⬠. In ââ¬Å"our girlsâ⬠she discussed the general disposition of women as being one of dull routine, no intellectual conversation, and superficial beauty. Stanton tried to convince her audience that women needed pecuniary independence and intellect to make their lives better, more fulfilling, and even their health better. Stanton first said that women are beginning to awaken to the fact that they belong to an ââ¬Å"ostracized class.â⬠She claimed that within this class, women had no individual character, no purpose in life, no aims, and no ambitions. Women depended too much on men for their livelihood ââ¬â but only because that is what they were taught to do. Men were trained to be superior while women were trained to sit in the shadows, listen obediently, and look pretty. Stanton refuted the idea that women were made to please men. She also denied that women should have merely a physical beauty. She saw that as a shallow faà §ade to the inner working inside their minds - which consisted of nothing (because of their lack of education). Since many of these beautiful, thin and fashionable women had no education, their source of knowledge was limited to their homes. Stanton was disgusted by their helplessness and dependence on men. Pretty girls may have had the tight waists and trendy clothing, but Stanton took an odd approach to convincing her audience that tight waists were nothing to aspire for. She used the same type of propaganda that men used for women, to say that tightening your waist could prevent circulation and result in paralysis around 6 inches of a womenââ¬â¢s waist. Stanton associated deep thinking with deep breathing, leaving the audience to ponder over her sarcasm. Stanton went on to speak about womenââ¬â¢s obsession with cosmeti... Free Essays on Our Girls By Elizabeth Cady Stanton Free Essays on Our Girls By Elizabeth Cady Stanton Elizabeth Cady Stanton was a womenââ¬â¢s rights activist in the 19th century who believed that women were to be treated equally to men. She argued this idea in one of her many speeches ââ¬Å"our girlsâ⬠. In ââ¬Å"our girlsâ⬠she discussed the general disposition of women as being one of dull routine, no intellectual conversation, and superficial beauty. Stanton tried to convince her audience that women needed pecuniary independence and intellect to make their lives better, more fulfilling, and even their health better. Stanton first said that women are beginning to awaken to the fact that they belong to an ââ¬Å"ostracized class.â⬠She claimed that within this class, women had no individual character, no purpose in life, no aims, and no ambitions. Women depended too much on men for their livelihood ââ¬â but only because that is what they were taught to do. Men were trained to be superior while women were trained to sit in the shadows, listen obediently, and look pretty. Stanton refuted the idea that women were made to please men. She also denied that women should have merely a physical beauty. She saw that as a shallow faà §ade to the inner working inside their minds - which consisted of nothing (because of their lack of education). Since many of these beautiful, thin and fashionable women had no education, their source of knowledge was limited to their homes. Stanton was disgusted by their helplessness and dependence on men. Pretty girls may have had the tight waists and trendy clothing, but Stanton took an odd approach to convincing her audience that tight waists were nothing to aspire for. She used the same type of propaganda that men used for women, to say that tightening your waist could prevent circulation and result in paralysis around 6 inches of a womenââ¬â¢s waist. Stanton associated deep thinking with deep breathing, leaving the audience to ponder over her sarcasm. Stanton went on to speak about womenââ¬â¢s obsession with cosmeti...
Tuesday, November 5, 2019
Candide by Nate Ziefert Essay -- book critique, French satire novella
Candide is a French satire novella first published in 1759 by Gabriel Cramer in Paris, France, and written by Franà §ois-Marie Arouet, or Voltaire, his pen name, a philosopher of the Age of Enlightenment. This book was chosen to show what life was like in France prior to the French Revolution and to provide an overview of the political issues of that period. Reading the book provided context for discussing various themes, including the importance of reason, the corruption of the church, money and power, inequality, which were all-pressing issues in the time period we studied. The book was useful to our course of studies because it detailed what life was like in France during the middle of the 18th century and provided context for what was taught in class--for example corruption by powerful forces in French society, such as the unfair treatment and pay between serfs and their feudal lords. A number of historical events lead Voltaire to write Candide. The first was the publication of Leibniz's "Monadology", an essay discussing Leibnizââ¬â¢ philosophy of optimism. Two other historical events, the Seven Yearsââ¬â¢ War and the 1775 Lisbon earthquake, also provided inspiration to Voltaire. The close of the Leibnizââ¬â¢ piece, "Therefore this is the best of all possible worlds", serves as the primary basis for Voltaireââ¬â¢s satire. Things were not so good in France, at the time for the majority of the French people and there was not much reason for optimism. Voltaire rejected Leibnizian optimism because if he was in the best of all possible worlds, a tragic and devastating earthquake should not have occurred. Natural disasters simply do not fit into the philosophy of optimism. Voltaireââ¬â¢s point of view is very logicergy goes into the work, and he stops all of his previous philosophical speculation. Finally, he is content. The text was entertaining, but highly improbable, and provides a good perspective from which to view the culture and politics of Spain and France in the mid-1700ââ¬â¢s. The themesââ¬âthe hypocrisy of religion, the foolishness of optimism, the uselessness of philosophical speculation and the corrupting influence of power and moneyââ¬âare expressed in an wildly entertaining manner. I found the way Voltaire interwove the characters with his themes and used satire most interesting. He made the characters whose opinions he disagreed with look like fools in order to discredit their beliefs, and he made his points through characters that were likable. Candide was definitely worth reading and packed in a lot of history and philosophy into a fast-paced, action story.
Saturday, November 2, 2019
Design the Training Plan Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words
Design the Training Plan - Research Paper Example Indeed, ADDIE has been very useful to determine how the knowledge, skills, and abilities of the employees would be enhanced that would be suitable to the cultural values imposed by the Hilton hotel (Thomas, Mitchell, & Joseph, 2002; Chevalier, 2011). With ADDIE, trainers for Hilton staff of Texas will need to improve their assertiveness, time management, initiative, and open-mindedness skills that were used as a basis for the training design and development. After completing the 5 scenarios. Participants will be divided into five groups with eleven members each. The members of the group will line up face to face and fold their folders that would be connected to the folders of their co-members. The folders of the members would serve as bridge to let the egg surpass from one folder to the other as the group members could walk and catch the eggs until they would reach the finish line. à The situation is that the world is in danger as it is infected with deadly toxic wastes and this will destroy the world in a matter of time if it will not be neutralized. The challenge for the participants is to transfer the balls (toxic waste) from the small bucket to the large bucket, for neutralization. However, there is a radiation circle surrounding the two buckets and must maintain a distance away from it. If a participant will go beyond that circle he/she will suffer a severe injury or death. It is in the hands of the group to save the planet within 20 minutes or else everybody will be doomed. This is an indoor activity. Participants are divided into partners by counting them off by two. Let the partners decide who will be number one and who will be number two. The participants who are number one will be lead out of the room and have them blindfolded. The blindfolded participants are called the casualty of war and they are stuck in a field of mines. But they donââ¬â¢t need to worry because their partners will going to rescue
Thursday, October 31, 2019
Management skills Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words
Management skills - Essay Example As evaluated, the areas of greatest strengths are in: developing self-awareness; communicating supportively; motivating others; managing conflict (especially in the areas of responding and mediating); as well as in building effective teams, teamwork; and leading positive change. The only identified areas where improvements are needed are in the areas of managing stress (eliminating stressors and developing resiliency); in rational problem solving; and in delegating. The score given by oneââ¬â¢s associates generated 400 which likewise categorizes me also under the second quartile. This confirms my initial reaction that I was actually viewed by colleagues and associates to have basically the same management skills as I personally perceived. The small variance could be rationalized from oneââ¬â¢s greater understanding of personal skills; as opposed to the understanding of others. Upon comparison, associates provided marginally lesser scores in the areas of stress management and leading teams. Further, some questions regarding the ability to motivate others generated variance in terms of identifying personal ability to address other peopleââ¬â¢s needs and drives. The marginal variance was noted in the area of stress management: I rated myself as score of 28 as opposed to associateââ¬â¢s rating of 23. It could be explained that the variance was due to oneââ¬â¢s personal perception that managing stress was differently viewed by others. When faced with stressful or time pressured situations, I tend to give the best possible way of coping and adjusting to the situations. However, those who know me well acknowledge that although I fair well and have manifested more than above average in addressing and managing stressful scenarios, I believe I still am the one who would determine the accuracy in assessing coping with stressful or time pressured situations. In the area of leading
Tuesday, October 29, 2019
Research proposal Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2250 words
Research proposal - Essay Example The objective of this study is to determine the set of risk factors existent between depression and falls and the relationship between anti-depressant drug use and falls among the elderly with depression. The second aim of this study is to determine a set of risk factors (cognitive function, walking speed, limited ADL function, psychological status and living conditions) that predict depression and fall among the elderly in society. Depression and falls are two common conditions that result in the elderly being taken to the hospital. These conditions impair the health of older people (Biderman, Cwikel, Friend, & Galinsky, 2002, p. 631). The specific aim of this study is to determine a set of risk factors (cognitive function, walking speed, impaired activities of daily living function, psychological status and fear of falling) that predict depression and falls among the elderly in society. A further aim of this research is to determine the associations between antidepressant medicines and falls. Many older adults are threatened by frequent falls and, as a result, their injuries reduce their independence and freedom. This student believes that the more knowledge we have about risk factors for falls among the elderly, the better we can care for them, resulting in fewer falls and injuries in the future. Since the elderly often refuse to accept the fact that they are depressed, this condition often goes untreated or undertreated. ââ¬Å"Both conditions are relatively undiagnosed and undertreated in the primary careâ⬠(Biderman, Cwikel, Friend, & Galinsky, 2002, p. 632). Studies have shown that both depression and falls are conditions that impair the health of the elderly. In addition, symptoms of depression are found to be common in older people and are associated with an increased risk of falls (Kwan, Lin, Close, & Lord, 2011, p. 612). Falls are
Sunday, October 27, 2019
Decadal Variability of Precipitation in China
Decadal Variability of Precipitation in China Introduction China is located in the East Asian monsoon region, the variations of the amount and distribution of precipitation over China are strongly modulated by the East Asian monsoon. As the most important features of the East Asian monsoon is a significant multi-scale variation and thus the precipitation in China also showed great variations, persistent heavy rainfall over eastern China often results in hazardous climate events such as floods and droughts. According to statistics, since the 1980s, large-scale droughts and other weather disasters have brought severe damage to our industrial and agricultural production and the economic losses due to droughts and floods reach 200 billion RMB every year, accounting for about 3% to 6% of the national economic output. Thus, it is important to understand the variations of rainfall over eastern China and their associated physical processes (Zhai et al., 2005). A lot of studies have revealed the climate characteristics, weather and circulation features, as well as the formation mechanisms of precipitation over China on different time scales, and carried out monthly, quarterly and annual precipitation forecasts. However, there are still significant inaccuracies on the current forecasts of precipitation. Precipitation is a complex meteorological phenomenon which exhibits oscillations at different time scales, including long-term trends, decadal oscillation, interannual oscillation, seasonal variation and high frequency oscillation. An important reason to these inaccuracies in forecasts is that the depth and completeness of the understanding to the changes and mechanisms of precipitation patterns on different time scales is still not enough. Previous studies indicate that the decadal scale is a very important time scale, on one hand, it could be treated as a turbulence superimposed on the long-term trend, for example, the decline in global temperatures during the 1940s to the mid-1970s slowed the global warming since 20 century (Wang, 1999). One the other hand, the decadal variability could be treated as an important background for the interannual variability, which has some influence on the interannual variability. Therefore, understanding the characteristics and possible mechanisms of the decadal-scale climate changes, and determining their degree of predictability have become major global scientific issues (Jiang, 2000). Improving the understanding and knowledge of the decadal climate variability, and estimating the climate changes in the coming decades scientifically will provide important implications for water resources, agriculture, energy and the development of national long-term development plan. 1. Features of decadal precipitation variation in China Since the beginning of 1980s, many researchers have noticed the decadal variations of precipitation in China (Wu et al., 1986; Zhang, 1989). Some studies have shown that there is a clear decadal variability of summer rainfall over eastern China during the second half of the 20th century (Zhao, 1999; Wang, 2001). Power spectrum analyses for summer rainfall showed a significant peak at 26.7 years. A drying trend was found in northern China and a wetting trend was found in central China in the last decades (Hu et al., 2003; Lei et al., 2010). In eastern China, the precipitation showed a wetting trend over the middle-lower Yangtze River valley and a drying trend over the Yellow River valley during the past 40 years, which indicates a southward shift of the rain belt over eastern China. Interestingly, the summer rainfall over eastern China also showed a positive-negative-positive pattern on the decadal time scale, which means that when there is more rainfall over Yangtze River, there would be less rainfall over both northern China and southeastern China, this pattern could be related to the dipole pattern and the positive-negative-positive pattern of the meridional winds (Ren et al., 2000; Wang and Zhai, 2003; Liu et al., 2005; Zhao and Zhou, 2006; Ding et al., 2007). The studies on summer rainfall over North China showed that the decadal variation is also evident (Chen, 1999; Huang et al., 1999; Li et al., 2002). From 1883 to 1898 and from 1949 to 1964 there is relatively abundant precipitation over North China, while from 1899 to 1920 and from 1965 to 1997 there is relatively less precipitation than normal over North China. This decadal variation caused severe climatic disasters, especially there was a persistent drought in northern China, resulting in the area of water resource scarcity (Huang et al., 1999; Zhang et al., 1999). Precipitation variation over western China is quite different form eastern China. In eastern China, There was no linear trend of precipitation was dominant during last decades. On the contrary, the increasing trend of precipitation in west China was very noticeable especially during the last 30 years. 1.2 Possible forcing factors for the decadal precipitation variation in China Since the 1980s, the atmospheric circulation, the weather and climate systems and the thermal forcing factor which affect the droughts and floods in China all exhibit an obvious 10-year interannual variation trend (Chen et al. 2002). To the decadal time scale forecast, the coupled air-sea interaction decadal mode is essential for the decadal precipitation forecast in East Asia. In contrast, the response of decadal climate change to human activities is not that important (Hawkins et al., 2009). 1.2.1 The decadal variation of East Asian monsoon The variability of precipitation over eastern China is strongly modulated by the East Asian monsoon (e.g., Zhao and Xu 2002; Hu et al. 2003; Zhang et al. 2004). According to the studies, monsoon has significant variation on decadal time scale (Webster et al., 1998; Huang et al., 2003). The Indian summer monsoon circulation underwent two weakening processes in the last 50 years, one in the mid-1960s and the other in the late 1970s, the rain belt shift in East China was in great agreement with the later weakness of the monsoon. When the East Asian summer monsoon became weaker during 1970s, the location of rainy belt in eastern China also moved from North China to the Yellow River and the Huaihe River (Wang, 2001; Zhu et al., 2001; Guo, et al., 2004; Ding et al., 2007; Zeng et al., 2007). In associate with the variation of monsoon, the locations of subtropical High and Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) also have related changes, they move to the north if the summer monsoon is strong and active, and displace to the south when the summer monsoon is weaker. In connection with these changes, before 1976, the East Asian summer monsoon was in an active phase, the summer precipitation was stronger in North China, while after 1976, the North China suffered a drier period (Li et al, 2001). 1.2.2 The decadal variation of sea surface temperature The decadal variations of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific and Indian Oceans play important roles in the variations of rainfall over eastern China (Ju and Slingo, 1995; Hu, 1997; Weng et al., 1999; Chang et al., 2000). Gong and Ho (2002) also proposed that, since 1980, the variations of SST over the tropical eastern Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean were primarily responsible for the shift in summer rainfall over eastern China through their effects on the subtropical northwestern Pacific high. Further more, Yang and Lau (2004) have statistically obtained that a high negative relationship between the tropical central and eastern Pacific SSTs and the northern China precipitation had been confirmed, while over central eastern China, the inter-annual variation of precipitation is positively correlated with a north-south dipole mode of SST anomalies over the western North Pacific, the tropical Indian ocean and warm pool. In the 1990s, the research on decadal variation originally focused on the oceanic state, because the oceanic variability was thought to be a slower process and its decadal features more evident. In the Pacific Ocean, decadal variation of the ENSO has been studied (Wang, 1995; Qian et al., 1998) and the EOF analysis of SST in the North Pacific still shows an decadal variation feature. The remaining part of the main EOF components, which is similar to the ENSO mode, was regarded as the decadal variation and named the ââ¬Å"ENSO-like modeâ⬠(Zhang et al., 1997) or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (Mantua et al., 1997). PDO is one of the strongest and most important signals of global decadal variability, the relationship between PDO and the decadal climate variation in China is get great interest. Zhu et al. (2003) and Zhang et al. (2007) pointed out that when the PDO is in the positive phase, the East Asian summer monsoon is weaker, and results in the drought in North China a nd flood in Huai River Basin. 1.2.3 The decadal variation of snow depth In contrast to the decreasing trend of the Eurasian winter and spring snow cover, the winter and spring snow cover, snow depth and number of snow days over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have had an increasing trend during the last 45 years (1956ââ¬â2000) (Li, 2002), with an abrupt increase occurring in the late 1970s (Liu et al., 2003; Zhang et al., 2004; Peng et al., 2005). Correlative relationship between the TP winter and spring snow and the Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall have been studied by a number of investigators with observed analyses (NCC, 1998; Qian et al., 2003; Wu and Qian, 2003; Liu et al., 2003; Zhang et al., 2004) and modelling simulations (Zwiers, 1993; Qian et al., 2003; Liu et al., 2004). Modelling results have shown the similar inverse relationship between excessive (deficient) TP winter and spring snow and a decreasing (increasing) intensity of the Asian summer monsoon (the South Asian and East Asian summer monsoon) through the snow monsoon mechanis m. At the same time, they have further obtained a positive (negative) correlative relationship between the preceding winter and spring snow over TP and summer rainfalls in the Yangtze River basin (North China). This correlative relationship has been used in the seasonal prediction of the National Climate Center of China as a useful climate signal, and considerable success has been achieved, particularly for the seasonal prediction of the prolonged, excessively heavy rainfall and unprecedented flooding event in 1998 over the Yangtze River basin which was preceded by extremely excessive winter and spring snow over the TP. 1.2.4 Other forcing factors Besides SSTs and snow depth, Yu et al. (2004) attributed the pattern of rainfall changes over eastern China to the summer cooling at the upper troposphere over extra-tropical East Asia, which was assumedly associated with stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Changes in both land temperature and SST modify land-ocean temperature gradients. When the temperature gradients became smaller, the southwesterly monsoon flow weakened and the moisture transported to southern China decreased, causing the local drying trend (Cheng et al. 2005). More recently, Ding et al. (2007) showed that the significant weakening of the tropical upper-level easterly jet, which could also be a result of the reduced temperature gradients, provided a dominant mechanism for the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon over the past 40 years. In addition, climate consequences of black and sulphate carbon aerosols are used to explain climate change in the Asian monsoon region in recent decades, including the tendency toward increased summer floods in South China and increased drought in North China (Ramanathan et al., 2001; Xu, 2001; Menon et al., 2002; Lau and Kim, 2006). Summary Conclusions as a result, It has been found that the decadal variability of precipitation in China for the past 50 years is very significant, with two major characteristic features identified: (1) occurrence of prolonged droughts in North China and, at the same time, marked flooding conditions in the Yangtze River basin and South China in the period from the end of the 1970s to the beginning of the 21st century, and (2) the rainfall regime has undergone an obvious abrupt shift or jump in the mid- and late 1970s. This precipitation regime shift is in good coincidence with a significant abrupt climate change or jump which has been extensively observed in other regions over the world as well as for other variables. Several studies have indicated that the Asian summer monsoon has become weaker after the end of the 1970s. In connection with this change, the summer rainfall decreased over the lower reaches of the Yellow River and the Huaihe River. However, it is not clear yet how the weakening of the Asian (especially the East Asian) summer monsoon affects the significant southward shift of precipitation patterns in East China. Furthermore, the reason why the inter-decadal weakening of the Asian summer monsoon occurred remains an open question. Studies also show that the inter-annual and decadal variations of the sea surface temperature in the Pacific and Indian Oceans have an impact on the variation of precipitation in China. When the SST in the North Pacific Ocean becomes cooler, the East Asian summer monsoon would be weaker, and results in the drought in North China and flood in Huai River Basin. Although the influence of SSTs on the Asian summer monsoon and the precipitation in China has been recognized, not all the variances of precipitation can be explained by SSTs. Some researchers focused on the impact of Eurasian spring snow cover as well as the TP winter and spring snow. They found that the Asian summer monsoon circulation has a negative correlative relationship with the preceding winter and spring snow over TP, which means, when there is an increasing trend of the snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau, the summer rainfalls in the Yangtze River basin would increase too. Although the features and possible forcing factors of the decadal variation of precipitation in China have been studied, there are still some key issues remained to be solved. For example, is there a coherent change in large-scale circulation features in the Asian region to correspond to the above inter-decadal variability of the summer precipitation in East China, especially the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon and its subsequent effect on significant shift of summer precipitation patterns in East Asia? Is the regime shift of summer precipitation in East China mainly a response to weakening in large-scale monsoon circulation systems in the Asian region? Further studies will be needed to solve these issues.
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